Renewed civil war to follow 2010 elections?

Wednesday, 07 April 2010 20:09 Mizzima News

The junta has once again extended a deadline on their contentious Border Guard Force proposal to three armed groups under ceasefire that have thus far declined acceptance of the scheme, leading to questions of what the future holds for the organisations if they remain outside the plan.
Originally given until the end of last year to respond, the Shan State Army-North, the United Wa State Army and Eastern Shan State Special Region 4 (Mongla group) have now been issued a deadline of April 28th. If they fail to accede to the Border Guard Force proposal, the groups risk being labelled unlawful associations.

The junta has long advocated the seminal importance of ensuring the territorial integrity of the state as a central pillar of its ideology. Theoretically, the ethnic dilemma was to have been solved prior to the constitutional referendum conducted in May 2008. That patently did not happen, and the regime now appears to be bringing all its political weight against the defiant groups - with the junta’s No. 2, Vice-Senior General Maung Aye assigned to play a leading role.

When the National League for Democracy (NLD) opted not to register with the Election Commission but remain a political entity as presently constituted, they apparently opened the door for future arrests of group members once the party is officially deemed unlawful. The fate of armed ceasefire groups that choose to remain outside the junta-directed nation-building plan may prove an even harsher reality.

Despite the lengthy ceasefires enjoyed by many of the groups - nearly two decades in the case of the estimated 30,000 strong United Wa State Army - being branded an unlawful association risks renewed violent hostilities against a Tatmadaw (military) that has been undertaking a vigorous modernisation programme since the overhaul of General Ne Win and his Burma Socialist Programme Party.

Speaking of the three armed ceasefire groups, presumably both China and Thailand, two important neighbours for Burma, would both be consulted before the launch of all-out war. But if the military feels its proposed elections this year have strengthened its hand with the wider international community over dealing with political opponents, 2011 could indeed see the return of hot-war zones to regions presently experiencing a tenuous veneer of peace.

Certainly the experience of the Sri Lankan government in violently putting an end to the Tamil Tigers - with minimal apparent backlash from the international community despite the well-documented brutality of the operation - was not lost on Burma’s generals. And the constitutional demand that the future head-of-state have established military knowledge - among other military-friendly provisions - will also not hurt in establishing the ostensibly civilian approval needed to renew hostilities.

Burma’s ethnic problems have often played second fiddle to the continuing drama pitting the ruling junta against Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD. While there is some distance to cover before elections, much could yet take place. If the groups continue to remain outside the Border Guard Force plan, the ethnic melee - as it did in the wake of independence - may again assume center stage.