Friday, 05 March 2010 13:32 Larry Jagan
Burma’s top general Than Shwe continues to tell everyone there will be elections in 2010 - but keeps everything else secret. “This year an election will be held to elect Members of Parliament in accordance with the State Constitution of the Union of Myanmar,” read his statement published on the front-page of all the country’s state-run newspapers to mark Peasants Day earlier this week.
He also urged the country’s farmers - who make up more than 60 per cent of the population -- “to elect representatives capable of building a peaceful, modern and developed nation and exercise democracy correctly.”
But true to form, Than Shwe also had a warning: “You also have to ward off potential dangers of those who will disrupt state stability and community peace with the assistance of aliens in the background.”
Than Shwe is trumpetting the elections as part of the country’s seven-stage road map to multi-party democracy, but it seems to be full of detours and roadblocks instead. While no one doubts that they will be held sometime later this year, nothing else is known.
And the local mass media is forbidden to cover any election issues that are not sanctioned by the authorities, including being banned from reporting the comments by the UN special rapporteur Tomas Ojea Quintana at the end of his recent visit to Burma.
The polls are keeping every one guessing, creating uncertainty and causing acrimonious divisions within the pro-democracy movement who cannot decide to contest the elections or boycott them all together.
The junta supremo, Snr. Gen. Than Shwe -- who micro-manages everything in Burma -- only repeats the mantra - there will be elections, and these will be free and fair. That is, provided people make the correct choices, he cautioned earlier this year.
No wonder people are confused and frightened, said a renowned Burmese social researcher and former political prisoner, Khin Zaw Win.
The forthcoming elections are dominating everything -- every topic of conversation hinges on the elections and total government inaction is the result of the pro-junta forces having launched their campaign, even though the polling date is yet to be announced, and political parties registered.
“It’s like an evil ghost hanging over our heads,” said a retired civil servant, Aye Win. But this seems to be a central part of Than Shwe’s pre-determined strategy to keep everyone guessing until the very last moment while he plans the campaign well in advance. After all these generals are far more used to the battlefield than the ballot-box.
So it’s a war strategy that is being adopted - where the fight is for future political control. Something these warriors cannot leave to chance. Of course they fail to understand that the battle for the hearts and minds of the people cannot be won so easily - and that things may not yet go according to plan.
“Everyone in Burma is talking about the elections,” an Australian MP and Burma expert, Janelle Saffin, told Mizzima after a recent private visit to the country. “Everyone is split on whether it’s a good thing and whether they should participate - even businessmen are divided.”
But Than Shwe will have to reveal the sign-posts soon. The electoral law and political party registration is expected to be unveiled in the coming weeks - possibly before Thingyan.
The UN special rapporteur on human rights Tomas Ojea Quintana during his recent mission to Burma wanted to discuss the elections, but found the regime reluctant and evasive.
Senior representatives of the regime responsible for controlling the electoral process - the Interior Minister, Attorney General, Chief Justice and National Police Chief, who he met as a group in the capital Naypyidaw at the end of his trip -- would not discuss any details of the elections, and simply said the legal framework is being prepared and the electoral law will be released in time. Clearly a euphemism, for the law is drafted and it is sitting in Than Shwe’s in-tray waiting his approval.
But that has not stopped the regime leaders from launching a drive to win popular support for the pro-junta candidates, for when they are allowed to register.
All over Burma preparations are quietly being made for the nation’s first elections in 20 years. Government administration has been put into suspended animation while government ministers and civil servants have effectively started political campaigning.
The state controlled media - newspapers and television -- is full of reports and photographs of government ministers inaugurating community and development projects, shaking hands with local leaders and handing out financial assistance. In fact, earlier this year Than Shwe moved the usual weekly Cabinet meeting back a day to Wednesday to allow ministers to travel in their respective areas between Thursday and Sunday handing out development aid and other largesse in order to win popular support.
“No decision is being taken that does not relate to the election preparation,” said a senior UN official in Rangoon on condition of anonymity. Some crucial new projects can only start after the election, government ministers have told UN officials and international aid organisations working in Burma. European NGOs have only had their current operations sanctioned until April, according a European diplomat who monitors Burma from Bangkok.
The corrupt industry-1 minister Aung Thaung was assigned in charge of the election campaign and providing funds to the pro-junta candidates, according to sources close to the military. Although he is unlikely to run for office himself, Than Shwe expects him to master-mind the junta’s “management” of the elections.
The junta's proxy Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) which he formed more than 15 years ago to muster public support for government policies - will provide the main pro-junta candidates in the election, according to military sources.
The older, National Unity Party (NUP) -- which was the pro-military party in the last elections - has now been added to the strategy. The military has been told that the NUP is a sister party of the army, according to senior government sources.
When the UN envoy Mr. Quintana met NUP leaders in Rangoon last month, they confessed that they had already picked their candidates, developed their party policies and were effectively campaigning throughout the country - even though in the absence of the electoral law this is illegal.
Of course this is something the opposition cannot do. Even the newly formed and unregistered United Democratic Party, which is mildly critical of the military government - were warned after their inaugural meeting last year by the authorities not to do it again, without prior permission, as the law prohibits a gathering of five or more people - the penalty up to seven years in jail.
The National League for Democracy (NLD) led by the detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has decided to wait until the electoral law is published before deciding whether to field candidates. This is something many activists and intellectuals inside Burma are cautioning against.
“The election is important, and if we don’t seize the opportunity now, it will be too late. We must decide before the law is passed and prepare,” the Democratic Party leader U Thu Wai recently told a group of journalists in Chiang Mai. “People don’t like the current government of Burma,” he said. “Now we have a chance to change it by voting in the forthcoming elections.”
Not everyone feels the same way. “Why should we contest these elections - the military will tightly control everything,” said a spokesman for the exiled Burmese pro-democracy movement, Zin Linn. “When we cannot speak freely, we cannot meet freely and we cannot discuss freely, how can there be free and fair elections.”
But social campaigners inside Burma, like Khin Zaw Win are adamant that every opportunity should be taken to push for democracy, and the elections may provide that. When the election comes round, people will vote for the party that supports democracy, he told Mizzima.
Even though the odds will be heavily stacked against them, the pro-democracy movement is being encouraged to take part. While many of their leaders fear that fielding candidates will only help legitimise the flawed process, many Burmese are desperate to be given a chance to vote against the military.
“The elections will be held whether we like it or not,” said Nyi Nyi a young Arakanese student in Rangoon. “We know we will have no choice but to vote; our only hope is that there will be some candidates who are not stooges of the military regime.”
“Darkness has already covered us,” said Khin Zaw Win. “We have already lost more than 20 and the people will only suffer more if we miss this opportunity.”
Saturday, March 6, 2010
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