How about the benefits?

Friday, 26 March 2010 00:15 Adam Selene

(Mizzima) -Much has been said and written about the downside of the roadmap of the regime. And indeed the undemocratic nature of the constitution and the recently published party registration and election laws would in most countries result in public outcry and resistance.

But let us not forget where Burma is coming from. With condemnations by the opposition and western governments dominating the news there is a tendency to forget the benefits of the ‘transition’. The opposition would be wise not to base its opinions solely on the shortcomings of the junta’s roadmap in relation to universal democratic ideals, but also on the gains in relation to the only alternative available: a continuation of the status quo, the poverty and the repression.

So what are these benefits?

First and foremost: the elections would offer the opposition a limited way to participate in parliament and in government. When parliament convenes this would offer the opposition the possibility of resuming dialogue with representatives of the Tatmadaw, dialogue which is currently totally lacking. These intensified contacts could be a basis for trust building. It is even thinkable that the opposition drives a wedge between the army and the army representatives in the coming years. In Indonesia it was Golkar - the party of army officers and public servants - that was instrumental in kicking out Suharto. It could happen again.

Another benefit is that the army stops ruling by decree. After the ratification of the constitution there is a proper (albeit not completely democratic) judicial basis to operate on. Although admittedly the constitution is flawed, it offers chances also. For instance: the constitution grants labourers the freedom to organize. This is a huge step forward in a country where up to now civil society is all but non-existent.

The period after the electio 1ns is also a time when the opposition finally gets to present its plans and ideas. There is no guarantee that any of it will be adopted by the then government, but it will be quite interesting to see how the opposition wants to heal the Burmese economy, solve the ethnic problem, and get the education and healthcare systems back on track. At the moment the programmes of the plethora of opposition groups are pretty one dimensional. Even parties like the NLD and the Democratic Party only seem to have one policy target: full democracy. Without having a real understanding of what democracy really is or can be.

If the NLD decides on March 29 to take part in the elections this will send a signal to the international community. And if the NLD is allowed to play a meaningful role after the elections this could open up the way for investments and humanitarian aid. This will have a direct effect on the lives of many Burmese, for most of whom the main problem is that they live in poverty, without access to healthcare or education.

The opposition could also try to stop the sell out that is currently underway. Hopefully the privatization wave of public property can be stopped at some point. Or at least it can be investigated.

It is clear there are benefits to be enjoyed, some potentially with a lot of impact. But there is no denying too that it is far from ideal to have the army as a state within the state. The prospect of a possible new coup will loom large for the coming years, as it did in Thailand.

But by now it should be all too clear that the election is going to happen anyway and that the junta will not alter the constitution or acknowledge the results of the 1990 election.

The opposition should calculate the possible net result and not let itself get carried away by wishful thinking and lofty ideals. It wouldn’t hurt to take the long view. As a politician in Rangoon recently said to me: let’s get these elections over with. In a couple of years the people will be able to vote again, and then the cards on the table will have been reshuffled.

Adam Selene (pseudonym) is journalist based in Bangkok.