Junta forces NLD to a corner

Wednesday, 10 March 2010 18:25 Mizzima News (Editorial)

Burma's generals are determined to hold this year's national election on their own biased terms, ignoring widespread calls from both inside and outside the country for a free, fair and inclusive election. Since Monday when the regime released the first of several extremely dubious new electoral laws, the pressure on Burma's main opposition party the National League for Democracy (NLD) has increased significantly.

Will the NLD participate in an election whose outcome has been predetermined by Than Shwe and his cronies? Or will the party decide not to take part and face being "outlawed" by the Burmese regime?

It is clear that the regime will not accommodate the NLD’s demands for a review of the 2008 constitution nor will it release the more than 2100 political prisoners languishing in Than Shwe's gulags. There is little chance that NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi will be released anytime soon. In the extremely unlikely event that the world's most famous political prisoner is freed from house arrest in time for the country's first election in 20 years, Aung San Suu Kyi is barred under the new constitution from holding office because she was married to a foreigner. The Michael Aris clause is a constitutional choke hold the blatant purpose of which is to remove the most popular politician in the country from the electoral equation.

Adding further insult, under the newly issued Political Party Registration Law, Aung San Suu Kyi and her fellow political prisoners are barred from even being party members while they remain in detention.

In 1990 the NLD won a landslide victory, securing 392 of 485 parliamentary seats. Than Shwe and friends chose to ignore the election's outcome and instead had the winning candidates imprisoned, killed or forced into exile. The regime's relentless pursuit of the NLD has not subsided over time and the party's top leaders like Win Tin and Tin Oo were detained for years on end.

The party despite the serious setbacks it has been dealt is still Burma’s main national political opposition to the regime today. Aung San Suu Kyi remains hugely popular among both those from the ethnic majority but importantly among many members of Burma's ethnic minorities.

Since 1988 when the present Generals grabbed the reins of power from the ageing and increasingly erratic General Ne Win, Burma's junta has doubled the size of the armed forces and killed thousands of civilians in an endlessly brutal counter insurgency campaigns.

While Than Shwe and his cronies have become extremely rich exploiting Burma's natural gas, timber and mineral wealth, the vast majority of Burma's people have become poorer. The general's relentless exploitation of natural resources at the expense of everything else has resulted in Burma succumbing to the natural resources curse, where like Nigeria or Angola, a corrupt and violent government is shored up by billions in oil revenues, so much so that the extremely unequal distribution of wealth undermines the rest of the nation's economy and drives the country's majority into further poverty.

It is absolutely certain that the NLD will not form the next government even if it decides to take part in the election. The NLD may win a few token seats, the regime however will use all its levers of power including its infamous thug squad known as the Union Solidarity Development Association to intimidate voters and candidates alike and ensure that those they select and back win.

There will be no repeat of the 1990 election when the junta greatly weakened and disorganized allowed a relatively free and fair election to take place. An examination of Burma's 2008 constitution, approved by a farcical 90 per cent plus of the population in a sham referendum, shows that the military learnt its lessons from the 1990 election and copied a thing or two from Indonesian mass murderer General Suharto and his defunct rubber stamp parliament. Under the new constitution 25 per cent of the parliamentary seats in both the upper and lower houses of parliament will be reserved for members of the military handpicked by the head of the armed forces. In addition military officers are allowed to contest electoral seats, which will almost certainly result in more than the minimum 25 per cent of parliament comprising of military personnel.

Were the NLD able to overcome the odds and capture 95 per cent of the electoral seats they could still not change the constitution to weaken the role of the military, because altering the constitution requires a three quarters majority and any attempt to limit the military's power in national affairs would almost certainly be vetoed by military's appointed parliamentary representatives. The 2008 constitution also stipulates that the defence minister, home affairs and security minister, border affairs minister and their respective junior minister positions all must go to a member of the armed forces. The President, who will be the Head of State, has to come from a military background and he can declare a “State of Emergency, dissolving not only the parliament but also the state cabinet, if it goes against the military.

The regime claims that it will be the “honourable referee” in a “multi-party election” while at the same time doing everything in their power to ensure that men in uniform are victorious. For those other parties who decide to take part in the elections, it may be a small window to start the difficult fight for wider democratic space. They should be prepared for a tough struggle in the coming years under the military's version of "disciplined democracy". Those members of the "third force" however should do their utmost to ensure they do not become mere democratic window dressing in a military controlled rubber stamp parliament. The people of Burma will no doubt judge political opportunists accordingly.

After more than 20 years of struggle the NLD is battered, bruised and clinging to life but the people of Burma need it now more than ever. The NLD has very little time to make some very important choices. Will they choose to not register with the electoral commission, risk being outlawed but remain "an opposing force”? Or will they contest the election and risk legitimizing a junta victory in a contest in which their own hands are tied behind their back? The NLD is in a Catch 22 situation. Whichever way it turns, the people in Burma will remember its decision as a part of history.