Thursday, August 6, 2009

What is the next step in Aung San Suu Kyi's sentencing saga?

 
by Larry Jagan
Thursday, 06 August 2009 20:12

Mizzima News - The next stage in the sentencing saga of Burma’s democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, is about to be revealed next week when the judges reconvene their secret court session inside Insein prison. If she is found guilty she faces a maximum of five years in jail. She is on trial for allegedly breaking the terms of her house arrest, when she gave food and shelter to an uninvited American intruder who swam to the compound of her lakeside residence.

Since the trial began more than two months ago, there have been continuous adjournments in the court proceedings, and now there is the delayed-verdict. This has simply fuelled intense speculation over the reasons behind the regime’s dragging the process out as long as possible. As it is clearly a political trial, there can only be one conclusion the country’s military supremo has not decided how to handle Aung San Suu Kyi in the long term. His plans for the transfer of power to a civilian government after the elections scheduled for next year are on hold as he works out the best solution to neutralise the pro-democracy leader.

There are a variety of reasons being put forward for the most recent delay: all pre-suppose ulterior motives on the part of the regime. All assume that Aung San Suu Kyi’s fate has been pre-determined. Some believe the main reason is that the junta wants to convince everyone that the judges are independent and that Aung San Suu Kyi has had a fair trial. Some also believe that international pressure may be another factor in the delay.

But there is no doubt that one of the regime’s main concerns is the possibility of street protests after the verdict is announced. The state-run media warned the public against protesting for several days before the scheduled court verdict last week. They particularly wanted to avoid the anniversary -- on the 8th of August -- of the mass pro-democracy movement which brought down the previous military ruler Ne Win, for fear that a guilty verdict might prompt demonstrations.

It may also have been part of a strategy to nip potential protests in the bud – a bait and switch tactic, according to Benjamin Zawacki, Amnesty International’s Bangkok-based Burma researcher. “To bait any potential demonstrators or activists anticipating a guilty verdict to identify themselves, and then switch the date of the verdict so there is enough time to crack down on them,” he told Mizzima. At least 28 National League for Democracy activists were arrested in Rangoon and in various other towns on the eve of the original verdict hearing, though many have been subsequently released.

“The 'bait and switch' tactic could also be linked to the 8 August anniversary of the "8888" pro-democracy uprising, since the government would assume that activists planning to protest the verdict would also commemorate the anniversary,” he added.

But the critical reason must be that Than Shwe is not ready to reveal his game plan for the future – in the run up to the elections planned for next year – and does not yet know what he should do about Aung San Suu Kyi. Than Shwe plans to announce the formation of an interim government that will hold administrative power for at least a year, until the elections are held, according to senior military sources in the Burmese capital Naypitdaw. This might also mean that the court decision may not be as cut and dried as most people believe.

“These charges are a complete and crude fabrication, a pretext to keep Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in detention,” the former UN human rights rapporteur for Burma, Professor Paulo Pinheiro recently said in an interview with Mizzima. The British ambassador to Burma, Mark Canning who completed his posting there last month, was also convinced that a guilty-verdict has been pre-ordained. “The trial has been entirely scripted and the end already decided before-hand,” he told Mizzima after a rare occasion when he was allowed to attend the court hearing. Public sentiment echoes that of the diplomats.

“No one is in any doubt about the outcome,” said Moe Moe, a taxi driver in the country’s main commercial city. “Those men in green in Naypitdaw [the new capital some 400 kilometres north of Rangoon] know she is the peoples’ hero and the real leader of this country,” he added.

Human rights campaigners are certain that the court antics are simply a ploy to try to convince everyone that Burma’s legal process is fair and independent.” The court claimed that it needed more time to review the evidence and study the 1974 Constitution -- in effect, to consider and decide the case on its merits, as any legitimate and independent court would do elsewhere,” Benjamin Zawacki told Mizzima. “The postponement of the verdict was partly an attempt to project an impression of fairness and impartiality on the proceedings … for sure this was to counter the prevailing view both within and outside of Myanmar that the verdict was scripted months ago.”

“International pressure is like an elastic band,” Burma’s top general has often told his immediate subordinates. When it is pulled tight, we should not move or do anything to make it worse, when it subsides – and the band is relaxed – we proceed with our plans.

There is no doubt that international pressure is very taut at the moment, and delaying the outcome of the charges against Aung San Suu Kyi fits neatly into Than Shwe’s strategy of dealing with the current international outcry against the opposition leader’s continued detention. But he must know that this campaign in support of Aung San Suu Kyi will not subside.

Anyway as the past 20 years have shown, Burma’s top generals will not heed the international calls for justice and the immediate release of Ms Suu Kyi. “They have completely ignored all international concerns – and gone on with their devastating, shattering repression of all dissent – with extremely heavy sentences being handed down for the crimes of democratic protest,” said Mr Pinheiro.

So Than Shwe must have another game plan in mind. He is a master at psychological warfare – and playing a waiting game with his enemies. But that does not rule out the likelihood that the senior general is currently developing his own end game. What is clear is that he and other senior generals around him, especially Maung Aye, plan to stand down when the time is ripe, after the elections planned for next year. New houses are being built for them near Maymeo. The regional commander has confiscated large tracts of land there and new residences for the top military brass are already being built, according to Burmese military sources.

Many analysts believe Than Shwe has been waiting for the trial verdict to further marginalise Aung San Suu Kyi before proceeding with his plans for a transfer of power to a civilian administration which would oversee the planned elections set for next year. “The whole country will really be surprised to see how power is handed over,” he reportedly told a high-ranking visiting foreign official.

The next step in the roadmap to a disciplined democracy is the creation of an interim government, according to senior Burmese military sources. Than Shwe plans to announce this soon and it will take control of the government for a year, according to a Burmese official. All government ministries have been told to complete all their outstanding work by the end of August, especially the preparation of statistical information. Aung Thaung, the minister and a close confidante of Than Shwe’s, recently told his deputies that there would be a new government soon, and he may no longer be the minister. Most of the current crop of ministers has also told their staff that they will no longer be ministers by the end of the year.

“According to Than Shwe’s plans, all the current ministers will have to resign, if they are to join a political party and fight the forthcoming elections,” said the independent Burmese academic, Win Min. So far there have been no hints as to who will be in the interim administration. Some analysts speculate that it may even include a senior member of the NLD – which would then preclude them from running for office in next year’s elections. This would also be one way of giving this body credibility – both nationally and internationally. It is possible, that Than Shwe wants Aung San Suu Kyi herself to participate in the interim administration, a senior government official recently told Mizzima.

For Than Shwe, there is another over-arching consideration, what to do with Aung San Suu Kyi after the elections. While it may be relatively easy to keep her locked up until then – the problem is that releasing her afterwards would only ensure that she would be an enormous thorn in the side of any immediate civilian government. So Than Shwe’s plans must involve finding a way to neutralise her and give her, her freedom. That is the key issue Than Shwe now has to grapple with, and until he decides what to do with her, she will remain in detention.

The timing of the election then is crucial to what happens next week. All indications are that it is likely to take place towards the very end of next year. So the further away it is, the more likely it is that the process will be drawn out: first a verdict, then another delay before the sentencing, and the appeals to the high court.

If Than Shwe is considering ways to co-opt Aung San Suu Kyi, then there must be secret talks or contact between the two. Leading opposition figures in Rangoon, including her lawyers categorically dismiss these suggestions. Diplomats are equally skeptical. “But if there were such talks I wouldn’t tell diplomats – and certainly not journalists,” a western diplomat in Rangoon recently told Mizzima. After all, it took months for news of the regime’s secret talks with Aung San Suu Kyi to emerge, when she was under house arrest in 2000. Those, brokered by the UN envoy Razali Ismail, led to her release in May 2002.

“Whatever happens, Aung San Suu Kyi will be freed before the elections take place,” according to a senior government official with close links to Than Shwe.