AFP
European countries have stepped up domestic security since US-Israeli strikes on Iran sparked the Middle East war, with fears Tehran could be plotting “terrorist” attacks as part of its retaliation.
The Islamic republic has been accused of seeking to orchestrate incidents in the past, and three such attacks have occurred in the United States and Europe since the start of the war on February 28.
In Norway, three Norwegian brothers of Iraqi origin have been arrested on suspicion of a “terrorist bombing” over an explosion at the US embassy in Oslo on Sunday that caused minor damage, and police have said they are exploring the possibility they were following “an order from a government entity”.
Iran’s ambassador in Oslo has denied any involvement.
A video appearing to show Iran’s late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a religious guide for Shia Muslims who was killed on the first day of the US-Israeli strikes in Iran, was uploaded to the Google Maps page for the US embassy after the incident.
In Belgium, a pre-dawn blast on Monday damaged a synagogue in the country’s eastern city of Liege, but caused no injuries.
Authorities said on Thursday they were examining a video claiming responsibility for the attack that was shared by the Shia “militant online community”.
In the United States, a US citizen of Senegalese origin who earlier this month killed two people in Austin, the capital of the US state of Texas had expressed “pro-Iranian regime sentiment” on social media, the SITE Intelligence Group has said.
– ‘Criminal networks’ –
Several European intelligence agencies have accused Iran of having a network of agents and criminals to carry out covert operations.
In its annual threat assessment, Norwegian security service PST said last month that Iran, which it considers one of the main threats to the country, could rely on “proxy actors”, including “criminal networks”, to commit acts.
Austrian intelligence service DSN in 2024 wrote in a report that “criminal networks have increasingly replaced Iranian services in carrying out violent attacks abroad”, and that it should be assumed “that this new strategy will intensify”.
Thomas Renard, head of the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, said reaching out to these criminal networks would be the easiest option for Tehran.
But Iran could also activate European circles linked to Palestinian militant group Hamas or Lebanese movement Hezbollah, both of which have fought Israel on home turf.
“Iran is the main sponsor of these organisations — even though their objectives may differ from those of Tehran,” Renard said.
“Less likely — but very serious — would be the activation of Iranian agents who have infiltrated Europe,” he added, though “burning your agents is generally a last resort”.
Finally, Iran could encourage an individual to carry out an attack, as the Islamic State jihadist group has in recent years.
“Isolated individuals could take action, because they are in a cycle of heavy consumption of propaganda, combined with an intense media cycle that would draw a great deal of attention to any potential attack,” he said.
– ‘Extension of foreign policy’ –
US researcher Matthew Levitt says Iran has carried out plots abroad targeting dissidents, journalists, foreign officials, and others since just months after the 1979 Islamic revolution.
“Iran sees terrorism as an extension of foreign policy — an asymmetric means of reaching its adversaries beyond its borders despite their military superiority,” the expert at the Washington Institute wrote in August.
Most recently, in June 2024, an assassination attempt was carried out in Haarlem on an Iranian citizen living in the Netherlands, according to Dutch intelligence agency AIVD.
One of the suspects was also suspected of the failed assassination attempt on Spanish politician and Iran critic Alejo Vidal-Quadras.
“It is likely that Iran is responsible for the two assassination attempts,” AIVD wrote in a 2024 report.
A Belgian court in 2021 jailed an Iranian diplomat for 20 years after convicting him of plotting the thwarted bombing of an opposition rally outside Paris.
The man was attached to the Iranian mission in Austria when he supplied explosives for an attack that was planned to target a rally of the exiled National Council of Resistance in Iran (NCRI) in 2018.
AFP
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