Fresh misery looms large in New Year in Burma

Thursday, 31 December 2009 14:33 Mizzima News (Editorial)


Mizzima News - The New Year should be a time for hope and change, but for the people of Burma it promises to bring more of the same misery, albeit with some new twists.

2010 is the year of the final steps for the regime’s ‘roadmap to democracy’. General elections are promised for later in the year that should usher in a democratic system. Few observers, however, believe that the elections will be free or fair. Indications are that the generals are already grooming loyal military officers and civil officials to take over key positions. The junta-backed so called mass movement, the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) is expected to be converted into a political party.

The few remaining opposition parties, including the winner of the previous 1990 elections, the National League for Democracy (NLD), are unsure about contesting the elections. The NLD is calling for a review of the new constitution passed in a controversial referendum last year. Exile groups and the NLD claim the constitution still gives too much power to the military through reserved seats in parliament and the barring of political prisoners from holding office.

Laws governing the formation of political parties and how the elections will be held are yet to be announced. Opposition leaders and exile groups say the junta will wait until the last minute to announce the laws in order to make it as difficult as possible for ethnic and democratic politicians to organize political parties.

Some observers believe the outcome of the elections is already a foregone conclusion - the junta already knows who will win and the votes will be rigged accordingly. Opposition and ethnic representatives will be allowed to win some seats in order to give a veneer of democracy to placate both opponents within the country and the international community. Constitutional guarantees mean the military will still be calling the shots.

At the same time the generals are preparing for the elections it is also moving to consolidate control over its border regions and eliminate any serious opposition from the country’s myriad ethnic groups. The junta’s Border Guard Force (BGF) plan places the military forces of the ethnic groups under direct Burmese Army control leaving only their political wings which will be allowed to contest the elections. Ethnic leaders claim the BGF takes away their ability to bargain with the regime, and the constitution does not provide enough guarantees for ethnic rights.

Most of the smaller groups have already been largely subverted and bullied into subscribing to the general’s view for the future. The remaining groups such as the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) are under pressure to join or face a military assault. A swift offensive against the Kokang in August that resulted in their defeat has only underscored the junta’s resolve.

Ethnic groups still resisting the government militarily such as the Karen National Union and the Shan State Army-South have been largely forced into increasingly smaller and more remote positions with their backs up against the Thai border. Their continued resistance has left them out of the roadmap, and to the junta’s thinking, irrelevant to its election plans.

Once ‘democracy’ is established through the elections and the ethnic groups co-opted, defeated or chased into the remote hills the generals will be the closest they have ever been to what they have desired most since taking power in 1962, a united Burma.