US inches closer to dialogue with junta

by Larry Jagan
Saturday, 31 October 2009 17:12

Bangkok (Mizzima) - A United States top level “fact-finding mission” is due to arrive in Rangoon on Monday. The Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, Kurt Campbell and the US Ambassador to ASEAN Scot Marciel will spend two days – Tuesday and Wednesday – in Burma. So far there has been no official announcement, and US diplomats in Rangoon refused to comment on the forthcoming trip when contacted by Mizzima. The programme is still being finalised, according to Burmese government officials.

Campbell is expected to meet U Thaung, the Minister of Science and Technology, and former Burmese ambassador to Washington, who met the Assistant US Foreign Secretary in September in New York. U Thaung is a hardliner and reportedly a close confidante of the top general Than Shwe. He will also meet other government ministers, including the Prime Minister, Thein Sein and the Foreign Minister, Nyan Win, according to Burmese government sources.

Campbell and Marciel will meet representatives of the opposition, including central executive members of the National League for Democracy and representatives of the ethnic groups. A visit to the residence of the detained opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi is also almost certain to be on the itinerary, said an Asian diplomat based in Rangoon. The US forwarded the delegations’ request more than a week ago, according to sources in Washington, and the trip was only finalised when they got an informal promise that Mr Campbell would be allowed to meet the pro-democracy leader.

“The regime has nothing to lose and everything to gain by allowing the American team to meet The Lady,” an Asian diplomat based in Rangoon told Mizzima on condition of anonymity. The opposition leader has told the junta that she is prepared to help get the western-led sanctions on the country lifted. Reducing Burma’s isolation and easing sanctions is something which the Burmese government now sees as a priority.

“Myanmar's [Burma] government believes that Aung San Suu Kyi seems to have softened her attitude towards the authorities,” said the Japanese spokesman, Kazuo Kodama, after the Burmese Prime Minister, Thein Sein briefed a meeting ASEAN+3 leaders, including China, Japan and South Korea last weekend.

However the American visitors are unlikely to meet the country’s top military leader, Senior General Than Shwe as he is preparing to visit the Irrawaddy Delta on Monday to avoid meeting the senior US diplomats, according to informed sources in Rangoon. “It's very likely that Than Shwe is not going to see the US delegation, and will use the visit to the Delta as a pretext,” said Win Min, the Burmese academic based at Chiang Mai University. “He has done this before when wanted to avoid seeing the UN envoy Razali during a visit to Burma and instead went to Ngwe Saung beach.”

Campbell is the highest ranking US official to visit Burma since Madeleine K Albright, visited Burma in 1995, when she was US ambassador to the UN. During the trip she met Aung San Suu Kyi at the opposition leader’s home in Rangoon – she had been released from house arrest for the first time only months ago. The year before the US Congressman Bill Richardson met Aung San Suu Kyi.

This is an extremely important visit, according to the British writer and Burma specialist, Justin Wintle, who recently wrote a biography of Aung San Suu Kyi. “It’s the most important development in years and shows that dialogue is well and truly under way,” he told Mizzima.

Diplomats and analysts in Rangoon though are cautious. “Who they meet and the atmosphere of the meetings will be a significant indicator of whether the regime is serious about engaging Washington,” a western diplomat based in Rangoon told Mizzima. So far the Americans have been very cautious in their approach, warning everyone that it will be a slow process, even if it proves to be successful.

"Through our dialogue, we will also make clear to the Burmese leadership that relations with the United States can only be improved in a step-by-step process if the Burmese government takes meaningful actions that address our core concerns,” Campbell recently told a US Conngressional hearing on Burma.

Since Senator Jim Webb visited Burma a few months ago, and helped start the process of contact between the Obama administration and the junta, US diplomats have been tight-lipped. Even their closest allies in Europe have complained privately that their American counterparts have consistently kept them in the dark.

Things may be moving faster than events and announcements in public indicate. There are tentative plans for the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to meet either the Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein of Foreign Minister, Nyan Win in the side-lines of the APEC and US-ASEAN summit in Singapore in two weeks time, according to Burmese government sources.

Much will depend on what progress if any is made during Campbell’s visit to Burma next week. He is scheduled to return immediately to Washington to brief the Secretary of State before she heads for Singapore. And Marciel will travel to Bangkok to brief the Thai government – as the current Chairman of ASEAN -- on the outcome of the visit.