Beginning of the end

by Mungpi
Wednesday, 02 September 2009 23:11

New Delhi (Mizzima) - The recent armed conflict in Northeastern Shan State between the Burmese Army and ethnic Kokang rebels, which split the Myanmar Nationalities Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), could be the beginning of the end for armed groups not ready to comply with the military junta’s proposal on the contentious Border Guard Force.

On August 27 fighting erupted between the junta’s troops and Koakang rebels loyal to their supreme leader Peng Jiasheng. The gun battles lasted two days till August 29, when several of Peng’s troops surrendered to the Chinese authorities.

But sources said, with Peng and his troops still remaining in the jungles, sporadic clashes continue in various places outside Lao Kai, capital of the Kokang area.

Though Peng and his troops continue to fight, analysts said, for the junta, gaining control over Lao Kai and the Kokang region is more important than fighting the remaining factions led by Peng.

The Burmese Army after driving away Peng and his loyalists, on August 25 reformed the MNDAA under a new name ‘Kokang Region Provisional Leading Committee’ and named Peng’s deputy Bai Suoqian as the new leader.

The junta shrewdly manipulated the differences between Bai and Peng by supporting Bai, who is willing to accept the junta’s proposal to transform the MNDAA into a ‘Border Guard Force’.

Analysts say the attack on the Kokang, which violated 20 years of ceasefire agreement, is the first step by the junta against the ceasefire groups. And it could be testing the waters before launching attacks on other groups including the United Wa State Army (UWSA), which is reported to have 20,000 soldiers.

But with the junta busy preparing for its 2010 elections, which critics said would legitimize the military’s role, the question is: Why would the junta want to neutralise the rebels?

According to the junta’s 2008 constitution, which it claimed was approved by over 90 percent of voters’ in the May 2008 referendum, there will be only one armed force administered under the new government.

According to Htay Aung, a researcher with the Thailand-based Network for Democracy and Development (NDD), the junta cannot allow any groups to have individual armies contrary to the constitution that it has drafted.

“I think, most likely the junta would try and persuade these [ceasefire] groups to transform their armies. But it might also be forced to launch attacks if these groups continuously keep rejecting the proposal,” he added.

The military regime in April sent a proposal to the 17 armed groups, with whom they have a ceasefire pact, to transform their armies into a ‘Border Guard Force’, which will be administered by the Burmese Army.

While a few groups such as the New Democratic Army – Kachin (NDA-K) in northern Burma consented to the proposal, major groups including the UWSA and the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) along with the Kokang and others rejected the proposal, stating that they prefer maintaining their own armies.

The rejections notwithstanding, the junta for the second time sent the proposal and set a deadline of October for the groups to decide.

Htay Aung said for the junta, to claim legitimacy and to prove that its roadmap is all inclusive, it is imperative that the 17 ceasefire groups transform their armies and join them in the 2010 elections.

“Without that it will be difficult to claim that its roadmap is an all inclusive process,” Htay Aung analysed.

But he said, the attacks might not necessarily be a direct military campaign. It could be different tactics including a ‘divide and conquer’ policy.

“It is clear now that the junta will make its move on other groups but the regime definitely would like to avoid armed conflict,” he added.

Though skirmishes between the Burmese soldiers and Kokang rebels broke out last week, the junta’s attacks had begun much earlier, after the Kokang leader Peng rejected the proposal to transform his army.

Since early August, at least seven battalions of the Burmese Army had been moving into the Kokang areas, according to a Sino-Burma border based military observer Aung Kyaw Zaw.

Combined with the battalions that were already stationed in the Kokang area, the presence of government troops suddenly grew, he added.

Simultaneously, the junta accused Peng and three others of operating an arms and ammunition factory in Lao Kai town. On this pretext, regime soldiers on August 8 raided Peng’s house.

But Peng and his three friends evaded arrest and fled Lao Kai. The court in Lashio, after the four refused to appear, declared them fugitives.

Taking advantage of Peng’s absence the “Kokang Region Provisional Leading Committee” was formed and Bai, deputy of the MNDAA, was named its leader.

“It is a typical Burmese junta tactic of breaking down rebels and opposition groups. It is ‘Divide and Conquer’,” said Aung Kyaw Zaw adding that other groups including the UWSA can start worrying.

Who is next?

According to Khuensai Jaiyen editor of the Thailand-based Shan Herald Agency for News (SHAN), an online ethnic Shan news agency, the junta’s greatest rival among the ceasefire groups is the UWSA and any military confrontation between the two will result in a bloodbath.

But Khuensai believes that the junta might make its next move on the Nationalities Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), also known as the Mongla militia, as it would be strategically important against the Wa Army.

“If the junta can gain control over the Kokang and the Mongla, which are located both in the North and South of Wa, it would be extremely difficult for UWSA,” he said.

Chinese factor

China has clearly indicated stability along the border is its first priority, leading some analysts to believe that if the junta opts for a direct military attack, China is likely to protest.

Despite the fact that China is worried over the conflicts on the border that drove up to 30,000 refugees into its territory, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a mild statement urging the Burmese government to handle its internal affairs properly.

“The Chinese government will disapprove of any disturbances along the border, especially that which concerns the Chinese people living on either side of the border,” Htay Aung said.

“But even the Chinese do not have much influence on the actions and decisions taken by the Burmese junta. So, even if the Chinese protest, the junta is unlikely to change its decision,” he added.

Professor Ian Holliday, Dean of Social Sciences in the University of Hong Kong, said the key principle of Chinese foreign policy is non-interference and the statement issued by the Foreign Ministry is about right as the recent conflicts are not high level problems yet.

Holliday said, if conflicts escalate China will be definitely worried but “the Chinese are unlikely to issue more strident public statements. Most of the activity will be behind the scenes.”

However, Holliday said, he believes “the [Burmese] junta will continue its campaign to ‘pacify’ the border area.”