Lame amnesty, creating prison space for dissidents

by Brian McCartan
Wednesday, 23 September 2009 11:18

Bangkok, Thailand (Mizzima) - (Commentary) A more sinister motive than currying favour with the international community on the eve of the opening of the UN General Assembly may be behind Burma’s mass prisoner amnesty last week. The generals could be aiming to make space in the prisons for more detainees in the run up to next year’s elections.

The suggestion was made yesterday by Burma expert, Bertil Lintner, at a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand for the release of a Human Rights Watch report detailing the situation of Burma’s monkhood since the suppression of the 2007 Saffron Revolution. Mr. Lintner questioned the timing of the release and said it was because the generals “need space in the prisons.”

A total of six prisoner amnesties have occurred since November 2004 resulting in the release of 45,732 prisoners, although only 1.3% of them were political prisoners according to AAPP-B. Three of those amnesties have occurred since the crushing of the Saffron Revolution in September 2007. In November 2007, 8,585 prisoners were released supposedly to mark the end of the constitution drafting National Convention, only 20 were political detainees. In September 2008, 9,002 inmates were released, of which only nine were political, including U Win Tin, a leading figure in the NLD. In February 2009, another 6,313 prisoners were released, 31 of whom were political prisoners. The junta claimed during that amnesty that the release was to allow the detainees “to participate in fair elections to be held in 2010.”

During that same time period, according to Human Rights Watch and AAPP-B, the number of arrests of individuals for political offences has more than doubled. More than 2,250 Burmese were believed to be locked up in prisons and labour camps across the country for political offences prior to last week’s amnesty. Hundreds of other opponents of the regime have gone underground or fled into exile abroad since 2007.

This most recent amnesty may be aimed at putting a shine on the junta’s image immediately before the commencement of the UN General Assembly in New York this week. The event will be attended by Foreign Minister Nyan Win, and perhaps more importantly, Prime Minister General Thein Sein, the most senior member of the regime to attend since 1995. It may also have been timed to coincide with an announcement by the Obama administration of a new Burma policy.

The international good will gained, and the extra space saved by the release of so many prisoners, could give the regime the leeway it needs to continue, and possibly step up, repression against opponents of its election plans. Past reprieves have seen the junta praised by the UN and governments while arrests which quietly continued or were even stepped up in the wake of the amnesties went seemingly without notice.

The junta is extremely wary of the type of campaigning that occurred prior to the last general elections in 1990, which it lost to the NLD. A period of extended election campaigning would give opposition parties an opportunity to voice their grievances against the regime and its new 2008 constitution. Lessons from past junta actions make it almost inconceivable that the regime would allow this to happen and would surely take steps to make sure any “trouble makers” were safely out of the way beforehand.

Opposition groups have already labeled the current prisoner release a sham noting the small number of political prisoners actually released. Bo Kyi, chairman of the Thailand-based Assistance Association of Political Prisoners-Burma (AAPP-B), called the recent release a ploy “to ease international pressure” at yesterday’s press conference. In a press release issued by the group yesterday, they noted that only 128 of the prisoners were actually arrested on political charges.

AAPP-B Secretary Tate Naing said, “Important political figures like Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Shan National League for Democracy leader U Khun Tun Oo, 88 Generation Student leader Min Ko Naing and other prominent activists are still in prison, because the regime perceived them as a threat to its absolute power.” In addition to Suu Kyi, the NLD’s vice-chairman, Tin Oo, and her personal secretary U Win Htein remain under arrest.

Many in the opposition community and among Burma watchers believe last month’s verdict against Suu Kyi extending her house arrest was designed to make sure she would not be able to participate in next year’s elections. Any one of the currently imprisoned leaders could become a focal point for anti-government sentiment which could result in what the generals appear to fear most at the moment; a disruption in their roadmap to “disciplined democracy.”