Why the NLD should and will compete in the 2010 elections

by Adam Selene
Friday, 11 September 2009 11:04

Mizzima News - (Coomentary) Much has been said and written about the (un)willingness of the National League for Democracy (NLD) to participate in the general elections the Burmese junta plans to organize in 2010. In April the main opposition party, which was victorious during the last elections in 1990, published a statement leaving little to the imagination. The NLD will only participate if three basic demands are met:

1. All political prisoners are released, including incarcerated NLD leaders
2. The 2008 constitution is amended according to democratic principles
3. Free and fair elections, monitored by the international community, are guaranteed

One doesn’t need to be clairvoyant to predict the junta will never meet all three demands. Sure, there has been some talk about granting political prisoners amnesty. And it remains to be seen if the generals will allow monitors from abroad – colonial trauma still manifests itself in a deep-rooted distrust of foreign powers. Lastly, there is no doubt about the fact that the SPDC will not amend the 2008 constitution, which it sees as its safeguard against prosecution and altogether losing grip over the country.

Does this mean that the NLD has ruled itself out? Will the party of the symbolic leader of Burma – Aung San Suu Kyi – be content with not playing any role whatsoever in the transition that awaits this troubled country?

The answer is: no.

The leadership of the NLD, one can argue, is indeed old and somewhat conservative. But the central executive committee members leading the party are no fools. They know, as every serious Burma-watcher does, that the elections will be far from democratic and will probably result in a guided democracy a la Indonesian-style. But they will also be aware of awaiting dangers if the NLD chooses to remain on the sidelines.

The main danger is that the participation of other parties will lend the elections enough credibility to render the NLD irrelevant. If these (ethnic) parties are able to work from their difficult position in the two Hluttaw chambers and gain some results, they could be considered far better representatives of the people than the NLD, which would still be powerless. Accordingly, if, as some analysts predict, the newly chosen parliament proves to be a stepping-stone on the long road to a more meaningful democracy, this could mean the end of the NLD.

There are indeed signs that quite a few parties are forming, especially in ethnic areas such as Mon and Kachin state. And abroad, in Canada, the UDP of Wa-businessman Kyaw Myint has recently been formed. This party has the money to organize a serious campaign, although there are considerable doubts about where this money is coming from.

Probably the NLD knows that it has to join the junta’s election circus. There are simply no alternatives. Not participating could be considered political suicide. All this talk about demands is, understandably, merely tactical. The NLD will try its best to pressure the elections to take a more democratic direction…and rightly so. But that the NLD will be on the ballot next year seems certain. The letter the leadership reportedly sent to the government asking to allow the NLD to organize itself freely is testament to this.

Dancing to the tune of the regime is surely no pleasure. However, the lack of alternatives sadly leaves the opposition no choice. The best way forward now is to work from what is being offered by the regime, be constructive and try to slowly push the boundaries of the new reality into the right direction over the coming years. And let’s be frank, even if the elections and the constitution are undemocratic, the least the post-election climate will offer is a forum for discussion on matters of national importance between the Tatmadaw and the opposition. This dialogue alone – which at the moment is totally lacking – should make participating worthwhile.

Adam Selene is a freelance journalist. He publishes regularly on Burma.