Burma: Behind the talk-show

by Mungpi
Wednesday, 14 October 2009 12:32

New Delhi (Mizzima) - In a rare gesture, the Burmese military junta last week granted detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi her request to meet diplomats from the United States, UK and Australia. But critics said, the meeting, like several others in the past, is unlikely to produce a political breakthrough.

While the meeting was a response to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s proposal to Than Shwe on her willingness to work together with the regime in easing sanctions, Than Shwe, according to analysts, is unlikely to be serious about political concessions.

However, the National League for Democracy, Aung San Suu Kyi’s party has welcomed the meetings saying it is a significant first step and encouraged the government to continue the process.

“We believe these meetings are important and a significant first step. We would like to see more of it and the process continued,” Ohn Kyaing, a spokesperson for the NLD said.

Despite the fact that Than Shwe is responding to the detained opposition leader, analysts believed it is part of Than Shwe’s exit plan and he is testing the waters before totally going his own way to the conclusion.

Win Min, a Burmese analyst based in Thailand’s Chiang Mai city said Than Shwe’s interest is getting sanctions lifted but with conditions placed before sanctions being lifted, Than Shwe is testing and is playing a political game.

The United States has made it clear that sanctions would not be lifted unless the junta gives evidence of implementing political reforms starting with the release of political prisoners including Aung San Suu Kyi.

On Friday, US State Department deputy spokesperson Philip J. Crowley said, the US appreciates the meeting between Aung San Suu Kyi and the three diplomats but reiterates that US’s first priority is to see the Nobel Peace Laureate and all political prisoners released.

Derek Tonkin, a former British Ambassador, who closely follows Burma’s politics, said Than Shwe is not really bothered about sanctions but believes that the meetings are indications that he is willing to allow a political accommodation to Aung San Suu Kyi.

The concession, according to Tonkin, is to invite Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD to take part in its planned 2010 elections but Than Shwe is unlikely to comply with the demands that the NLD had made including a revision to the 2008 constitution.

Tonkin said, the only concession that Than Shwe might be willing, is to issue is a statement saying that Constitutions are not cast on stones forever and could be amended if the new Union Parliament approves it.

Tonkin said the flaws in the 2008 constitution are mainly about the military taking a leading role in future Burmese politics and to take direct control on all military and security issues.

“These are "flaws" in the Western perception, but not in the eyes of the Tatmadaw [Military],” said Tonkin adding that it would be more important to see what happens in the weeks and months following the elections.

According to him, the junta, determined as they are, are likely to invite the NLD to take part in the 2010 elections, but with or without the NLD, the junta is likely to move ahead with the elections, which are likely to be acceptable in the region even if the NLD does not take part.

Aung Naing Oo, a Burmese analyst based in Chiang Mai believes that the response by Than Shwe to Aung San Suu Kyi’s proposal could be an exit plan for him, which he calls it his ‘Succession Plan’.

Despite efforts in silencing the Burmese Nobel Peace Laureate, Than Shwe knows that the democracy icon could help him in easing western sanctions and open a door for engagement, which could help him in his way out of Burma’s politics.

But Than Shwe is unlikely to make big political concessions and the only likely concession that he might agree to is the 2010 elections and possible configuration of politics in the next five to 10 years, which could be his exit strategy, Aung Naing Oo said.

While Burma’s military rulers have been largely indifferent and unresponsive towards western sanctions, in recent months, the military clique is making efforts to persuade the US in engaging them.

Easing sanctions would mean a great bonus for the junta, particularly before the elections, as it would mean endorsement to their plan, Win Min said.

“They [the junta] want to get some legitimacy from the West for their elections. They know it’s easy to get some legitimacy from Asian countries for their elections, but they know it’s not easy to get it from the West. It’s also for Than Shwe’s legacy,” Win Min said.

But when everybody knows that sanctions would not be lifted without the junta first meeting the conditions, why talk of sanctions at this juncture?

Conveniently, sanctions have brought the junta, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the US to some kind of talks that had never happened before, and brought a ray of hope for all parties concerned.

For Than Shwe, according to Tonkin, his priority is to complete the election process and see the Parliament formed. He does not really expect any changes in sanctions until then. For this, Than Shwe wants some kind of support both from the US and Aung San Suu Kyi.

For Aung San Suu Kyi, it is a convenient time for her to offer her helping hand, as a step in approaching the junta, which is going crazy for talks on sanctions, and has proved her relevance in Burmese politics and has also showed her willingness to solve Burma’s political deadlock.

And for the US, having analysed the failure of its earlier policy and feeling the limits of influence it has on the junta, it is a convenient time to announce a new policy of engagement while not giving up its democratic values.

According to Aung Naing Oo, both Than Shwe and Aung San Suu Kyi should grab the opportunity to turn the talks into something meaningful by starting with small, something they can cooperate without upsetting their main interests.

But what if the talks fail to produce anything substantial?

While it is easier to believe that the talks would not yield any fruit, like it had so many times in the past, it is still doubtful where this would lead if it all fails.

Than Shwe on October 9, in his speech at the closing ceremony of the Myanmar War Veterans Organisation (MWVO) in Naypyitaw, re-assured that the country is heading for an election in 2010.

This, according to analysts, is a sign that Than Shwe is determined to go ahead with his plan with or without an endorsement by the NLD or Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and the international community.

But if Than Shwe does not want to share power with the opposition by making political concessions by releasing political prisoners and allow opposition parties including the NLD to participate in the elections freely and fairly, things are likely to return to square one, Win Min said.

“Things won’t improve, but are likely to be as bad as today at least for the immediate future,” he added.