Time to Talk: Burma & the 2010 election

Wednesday, 10 February 2010 10:35 Mizzima News (Commentary)

(Mizzima) – The second decade of this century ends with the digits 10. Likewise, October is the 10th month of the calendar year. Owing to the Burmese regime’s affection for numerology, it is thus widely speculated that the much talked about 2010 general elections are to be held on October the 10th (10-10-2010) – ushering in a new era of “disciplined democracy” and ending the military rule of nearly half a century.

On the occasion of Burma’s 62nd Independence Day, January 4th of this year, Than Shwe in a national broadcast exhorted the people to make “correct choices” in the election. But there is no reference or assurance that the election will be a genuine and inclusive process of national reconciliation, while there is still no promulgation of election laws or freedom of assembly and press. And all the meanwhile, the house arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi, the opposition’s democratic icon, continues. Shamefacedly, the Home Minister remarked that she would be released only in November when the term of her sentence, as well as the election, is concluded. In short, there have been no meaningful steps taken that would lead to a credible election, all the more necessary as the integrity of the constitution is in serious doubt.

Instead of talks with the leader of the opposition, the junta continues to keep Suu Kyi marginalized and under house arrest. And though an appeal against her detention is pending in the Supreme Court, no action has yet been taken, reaffirming the fact that the court is bound by the junta’s wishes. In such a legal environment, one can imagine how high-handed the junta will act in the conduct of the election.

If there is to be any hope for the election then the country’s many draconian laws have to be abolished, amnesty has to be declared, electoral laws have to be put in place, an election commission formed and political parties allowed to engage in the conduct of election activities. In its Shwegondaing Declaration, the National League for Democracy, Burma’s primary opposition party, set out the conditions for their participation in the election. The junta should read this document and think outside of the box, it is already a great concession that the opposition has virtually conceded demands for the results of the 1990 election to be honored.

The “disciplined democracy” that the junta talks about will never be achieved unless there is national reconciliation. The junta is afraid of a repeat of the 1990 election; the fear of being dislodged from power weighs on their every step. For this reason, they may yet decide to postpone elections via the ruse of appealing to national security needs.

Than Shwe is desperate to receive the peoples’ mandate. He has the option of resigning, leaving the army with his colleague Maung Aye, contesting the election and demonstrating just how much of a “disciplined democrat” he is. However, the election, as it stands, will open up a Pandora’s box. The regime’s manipulation will legitimize calls for the resurgence of ethnic militarism and rally ethnic Burmans to join in the call for democracy. This reaction will destabilize the state and Than Shwe will face his greatest challenge to date.

The 2010 election can be a genuine turning point in Burma’s history. But if Than Shwe can think afresh and enter into talks, he can yet salvage the manner by which his name will go down in the history books of generations of Burmese students to come.