by Larry Jagan
Wednesday, 01 July 2009 22:29
BANGKOK (Mizzima): Ban Ki-Moon, the United Nations Secretary General, is visiting Burma later this week, a year since his last trip there. He will be raising both political and humanitarian issues with the junta’s top leader. But many critics and opposition politicians’ fear that it is a futile trip as the UN chief cannot expect to coax any significant and concrete concessions from the generals during his visit.
Mr Ban says he will be conveying the international community’s concerns during his mission to Burma. “The three most important issues [for Burma] at this juncture is the release of all political prisoners including Aung San Suu Kyi, the immediate resumption of dialogue between the Government and opposition leaders, and creating an atmosphere conducive to holding credible
elections,” the UN chief told journalists in Tokyo before he headed for Burma.
He also wants to "consolidate and build on" the humanitarian aid efforts that were established in the aftermath of last year’s devastating Cyclone Nargis -- the reason for his last visit to Burma in May 2008.
“We greatly hope that the Myanmar leaders will respond positively to the concerns of the international community during the UN Secretary General’s visit,” the Secretary General’s special envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari told Mizzima.
During his two full days in the country, Mr Ban will meet Senior General Than Shwe at least once, government ministers, including the Prime Minister, representatives of the pro-democracy party the National League for Democracy (NLD) and leaders of the country’s ethnic groups that have ceasefire agreements with the Burma’s military regime, according to UN sources in New York.
“The SG has certainly requested a meeting with the [detained] opposition leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi,” the UN spokesperson, Michele Montas told journalists in New York earlier this week. But as yet that has not been confirmed. “This is normal practice,” a western diplomat in Rangoon told Mizzima. “Only Than Shwe can sanction such a meeting – and that is likely to happen during Mr Ban’s discussions with Than Shwe.”
That was in fact what happened when the UN special envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari undertook his first visit to Burma in May 2005. During his meeting with Than Shwe, he was granted access to the opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, who was then under house arrest. He flew immediately down from the capital for the meeting in Rangoon. Daw Suu, apparently was given less than hour’s notice that a meeting was taking place. UN officials involved in the planning for Mr Ban’s visit believe that is what is likely to happen this time.
Mr Ban will be having two meetings with the junta leader, according to UN officials. The first will be a wide-ranging discussion on political and humanitarian issues. The second will be to follow up on some of the specific matters that were agreed on during the first session.
“The hope is that Mr Ban will be allowed to see Daw Suu in between meetings, and then be able to relay her thoughts and responses to the top general – a limited form of shuttle diplomacy,” said a western diplomat in the region who has been closely following Burma’s political affairs for more than 10 years.
The release of political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, starting political dialogue with the opposition and making the proposed elections next year, inclusive and credible, are the top priorities on this trip, Mr Gambari told Mizzima. But the UN envoy cautioned against raising expectations. “Nothing is guaranteed, but nothing will happen without a meeting with the Senior General,” said the UN diplomat.
That at least has been confirmed by the Burmese authorities. It would happen as a matter of diplomatic protocol, according to diplomats in Rangoon. But the UN chief cannot go back empty-handed, they said. The regime must make some concessions to the international community.
While the opposition is certain that Aung San Suu Kyi’s release from prison is not one of them, the release of political prisoners may be something Tha Shwe is prepared to offer. “The SG will be looking for a significant release of political prisoners – during or after his visit,” said a UN official involved in preparing for Mr Ban’s trip, but declined to be identified. “It will have to be several hundred, for it to mean anything,” he added.
More than 20 political prisoners on the list Mr Gambari submitted to the regime on his visit last year were released. But of course since then scores more have been sentenced to long jail terms. There are at least 2,150 political prisoners currently in Burmese jails, according to the UK-based human rights group, Amnesty International.
On the planned elections in 2010, the next step in the government’s roadmap to multi-party democracy, the UN chief will be trying to convince the regime to make it inclusive and credible. “These elections must be transparent and democratic,” Mr Ban told journalists in Tokyo on Wednesday.
This means allowing the NLD to participate without harassment and intimidation. Mr Ban will be reminding the junta leader that he promised Mr Gambari that the NLD would be allowed to contest the elections when the two met in Naypitdaw in November 2007. “The key point Mr Ban will also be making, is that the regime has already invested a lot in the roadmap, and that they should take the next step to ensure the results they want – a credible election both nationally and internationally,” an advisor to the UN on Burma, told Mizzima on condition of anonymity.
The UN Secretary General knows that many of Burma’s allies and neighbours are particularly concerned that the elections are not a sham as the referendum was, and as most opposition politicians fear. China, in particular, behind the scenes is encouraging Burma’s military rulers to compromise, and accept the support of the UN to make sure the elections are not simply dismissed by the opposition and most of the international community.
That will be easier said than done. For the NLD has made it clear that the elections are not the issue – but the constitution. This was drawn up without the involvement of the NLD and overwhelmingly passed in a referendum that was universally seen as a fraud. The NLD is demanding a constitutional review, in which they are involved.
This is something that the top general will not contemplate. He has made it clear that the constitution – which in effect legitimises military rule in the form of a civilian administration – is non-negotiable. So the only real card Mr Ban has left is dialogue between the military regime and the pro-democracy parties, particularly the NLD. This has been the UN’s main aim since the first resolution at the UN General Assembly 20 years ago and numerous special envoys. The hope is that the Secretary General maybe able to achieve something his envoys have not.
“This is not a make or break trip,” Mr Gambari advised Mizzima. “The important thing is to keep the process of UN engagement in the country going, and, if possible strengthen and deepen it.”
Ban Ki-moon visited Burma late last May, in the wake of the devastation caused by Cyclone Nargis and chaired the donors’ meeting in Rangoon which provided crucial aid for Burma’s cyclone victims and the country’s subsequent reconstruction plans. During that visit the UN Secretary General had an hour long meeting with Than Shwe in which there was a frank friendly discussion, according to Burmese military sources.
On this trip Mr Ban will also be raising humanitarian issues. He will be touching on two key areas of international concern, a senior UN official said. The increasing problems the UN and other international aid agencies are now having getting visas to enter the country. And the difficulties aid workers are having getting access to areas outside the Irrawaddy Delta, especially areas near the borders that have been designated “conflict areas”, but where there is acute humanitarian requirement that needs to be addressed.
The UN chief will fly to Burma via Singapore, where he will meet the former Singapore Prime Minister, Goh Chock Tong who visited Burma last month, in a private capacity, and met the junta’s top leader, General Than Shwe. “This could be a crucial briefing for the UN envoy,” said a western diplomat who covers Burma, on condition of anonymity.
Many western diplomats fear that Ban Ki-Moon is going unprepared – into what one called the “Lion’s Den”. He has so far shunned formal briefings on Burma, preferring to allow the discussion with Than Shwe to develop naturally, without to many preconceptions. “He must have forgotten that the General is an expert in psychological warfare – and a diplomat will be no match for his cunning,” Zin Linn, a spokesman for the opposition-in-exile told Mizzima.
But Mr Ban is certainly leaving nothing to chance with the planning of the trip. An advance team is already in Rangoon paving the way for his visit on Friday and Saturday. The special envoy, Mr Gambari and the head of the UN’s department of political affairs, the American diplomat, Lynn Pascoe will be accompanying the Secretary General.
Perhaps a crucial concession has already been made by the regime. The authorities have already promised to allow him to “have an opportunity of giving a public speech to civil leaders, NGOs and diplomats,” Mr Ban told journalists at the end of his trip to Tokyo.
This will be one of his last engagements before he boards the aircraft in Rangoon, according to a UN insider. ”If the trip goes well he can praise the government for their efforts, if it goes badly he can tell everyone what went wrong,” said the source.
“It may yet prove to be an effective weapon – without referring to it – to help encourage the regime to make sure the trip is not a debacle, as the last thing they want is a public relations disaster with one the world’s top leaders,” he added.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
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