by Mungpi
Saturday, 18 July 2009 15:28
New Delhi (mizzima) - As members of the United Nations Security Council debate UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s latest visit to Burma, the country’s opposition leader and democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi awaits her fate in a secluded corner of the notorious Insein prison in Burma.
In the wake of Ban’s briefing the Security Council on his visit to Burma, on Monday, members including veto wielding nations United Kingdom, United States and France deplored the Burmese junta’s stance in refusing to allow the UN chief to meet the opposition leader.
But, another veto wielding country, China, came to the defence of the Burmese Generals, stating it was an understandable situation for the regime to refuse Ban a meeting with the opposition leader and urged the West not to ‘pick’ on Burma and to treat matters as “internal affairs” of the country.
On July 24, the final arguments from lawyers of both sides will be presented in the special court in Insein prison, following which, a verdict is expected. Aung San Suu Kyi could face up to five years in prison, if found guilty.
While some are speculating about the possibility of her being declared innocent, the popular understanding is that the junta is holding the trial as a pretext to continue detaining her, and it would come as no surprise if the court sentences her to a prison term.
What will happen if she is sentenced and sent to prison?
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been the fountain head of the Burmese struggle for democracy and who has fired the aspirations of the Burmese people through her personal sacrifices and integrity, has been under detention for most of the past 19 years.
But Win Tin, a senior member of her party – the National League for Democracy – and a veteran journalist predicts that if she is sentenced it may provoke the people and could lead to yet another mass uprising, as she is the sole hope for the millions of Burmese people that want changes to come to the impoverished Southeast Asian nation.
“Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is in the hearts of the people, and people will be very angry if she is sentenced to a prison term,” the veteran journalist told Mizzima earlier in an interview.
But given the instances of the Burmese Army brutally cracking down on any anti-government activities, including the 2007 monk-led protests and the popular 1988 student-protests, some doubt whether the people would have the courage to come out on the streets in protest.
Thakhin Chan Tun, a veteran politician in Rangoon said, he does not believe there would be any kind of anti-government protests even if the Nobel Peace Laureate is imprisoned because the regime has revealed its brutality in cracking down on any kind of dissidence.
“The government has already arrested all activists and those who escaped the dragnet have gone into exile and are campaigning outside the country. So, it is quite impossible for any kind of mass activities happening,” he said.
He said it is clear that the junta has cooked up this plan in order to charge, put on trial and imprison Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. He is afraid that no amount of pressure will stop the junta from doing what it has planned.
But a veteran ethnic politician, Aye Thar Aung, who is also Secretary of the Committee Representing Peoples Parliament (CRPP), the only over-ground political alliance in Rangoon, said they are having discussions on what to do next if the pro-democracy leader is sentenced.
“We cannot definitely say what will happen if Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is sentenced. But there is a plan that we, political organisations, have been discussing,” Aye Thar Aung told Mizzima.
He said while the junta had masterminded the whole incident to sentence Aung San Suu Kyi, they had not anticipated the kind of response that may follow.
He went on to say that if Aung San Suu Kyi is sentenced, it will clearly expose the junta’s intention of continuing in power and its unwillingness to engage in any form of political reforms, which will mean blatantly ignoring the concerns of the international community.
Ban after his briefing at the Security Council on Monday told reporters that without the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, Burma’s general election in 2010 will not be credible.
Ban’s statement has been the strongest, ever since the junta announced its proposed elections to be held in 2010 as the fifth step of its seven-step roadmap to democracy.
But the junta, in order to smoothly carry out its roadmap, which will legitimize and entrench military rule, understands that keeping the Burmese Nobel Peace Laureate out of the public arena is vital.
But with increasing international pressure, the junta seems to have been taken by surprise and is into dilatory tactics.
Win Tin said the junta does not seem to have anticipated such international and domestic reaction but now that it has experienced it, the regime is slowing down and is rethinking its strategy.
“With the kind of reaction in both the domestic and international community, the junta is likely to prolong the trial,” said Win Tin, adding that initially the junta was expected to hand out a verdict within weeks since the trial began on May 18.
In yet another ploy, characteristic of the junta, it is toying with the international community, for the junta’s Ambassador to the UN, Than Swe, following Ban Ki-moon’s briefing to the Security Council said his government has been contemplating releasing prisoners to enable them to contest the forthcoming election.
Immediately, the National League for Democracy, responded saying it doubts the junta’s intention as it might merely be another ploy to ease growing pressure on it.
Nyan Win, spokesperson of the NLD, said “We are not really hopeful of the government’s amnesty plans as it has repeatedly released a few political prisoners along with other criminals.”
Similarly, Benjamin Zawacki of the Amnesty International on Thursday told Mizzima that the junta’s announcement is yet another tactic to ease mounting pressure and that only if the regime turns its words into action, it should be applauded.
While many observers and Burma interest groups have been critical, the junta’s announcement does prove the regime’s desperation to come out of being the centre of interest.
And it also reflects that the junta does yield to pressure.
But if these pressures are not kept up, the junta, with the help of its allies including China and Russia, could once again get away with its plan and make a fool of the UN. And the Secretary General’s visit to Burma would prove meaningless and be a failure.
While activities inside Burma cannot be predicted due to the stranglehold on the country by the junta, Ban Ki-moon is the best hope for Burma at this juncture.
It is the right time for the UN chief to further increase pressure and pool in all resources to achieve what he has called for, as the process has taken-off with his visit to the country.
But if he fails to increase diplomatic pressure, the UN, which is often called a ‘Toothless Tiger”, would be yet another play-thing for the junta and would only be a tool in legitimizing its rule.
Prospects of change
However, inside Burma, there are several rumours ranging from a power struggle among the top generals in which Senior General Than Shwe is being forced to retire to rumours of negotiations between General Khin Nyunt, former head of the once-powerful Military Intelligence but now under house arrest, and the top leadership of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) over critical issues the regime is facing. But, Senior General Than Shwe, being an expert in psychological warfare, is also known to spread rumours to divert public attention or whenever there is any crisis within the junta.
The facts are clear. Senior General Than Shwe does not want to talk or negotiate with pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, especially when it comes to the interests of the military, which he likes to think are "national interests". He personally dislikes Aung San Suu Kyi and does not accept the liberal concept of democracy.
He strongly believes that western countries are targeting him and his regime and thus are against the nation. He is determined to thwart this as long as he is in power or is alive. And fortunately, he has the backing of countries like China and Russia, both veto wielding nations at the Security Council.
Another fact remains Aung San Suu Kyi and the democratic forces as well as ethnic nationalities will find it difficult to accept the junta’s "Seven Step Roadmap", especially the already approved [by the regime] 2008 constitution and the way the elections are planned to be held in 2010. They will not accept any cosmetic changes that the regime may resort to, to ease international and internal pressures.
They want clear and concrete action from the regime to reflect democratic changes in the near future. They want political questions of the country to be dealt with politically and democratically. And by and large, the western democracies are likely to continue supporting Aung San Suu Kyi and the democratic movement in Burma, at least morally, if not anything else.
At this crucial juncture, the only possible meeting point is a sincere compromise. Both sides need to define each other’s positions clearly and keep aside everything else, including positions and ideologies, while solely looking at national interests. Burma's long term interests lie in sovereignty, democracy, development, equality and unity. Maybe keeping in mind these interests, both the Than Shwe-led Burmese military and Aung San Suu Kyi-led democratic movement can meet to begin negotiations.
But it must be reckoned that even if both sides agree to sit-down for negotiations, Burma has a long way to go to reach those objectives. After all, these objectives had been laid down by General Aung San, the father of the Burmese military, the father and architect of the nation’s independence and the father of Aung San Suu Kyi. He was assassinated on 19 July 1947. Sixty two years have passed since then and Burma still finds itself nowhere near reaching these national objectives.
But the irony is, it can still take another 62 years if all stake holders do not compromise to find a meeting point.
Some information contributed by Mizzima reporters
Sunday, July 19, 2009
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