Standoff in the north, China plays major role

by Brian McCartan
Sunday, 05 July 2009 19:11

Bangkok (Mizzima) – A very dangerous game of brinksmanship is being played out on Burma’s northern frontier with China. Here, ethnic insurgent groups that agreed to ceasefires with the junta twenty years ago are being ordered to transform their military wings into a “border guard force” within the Burmese Army or face renewed war.

The regime has made the disarming of the ceasefire groups a key component of its “roadmap to democracy”, which also includes the upcoming 2010 general elections. The regime’s reasoning for the transformation is that under democracy there will be no reason for the various ethnic groups to keep their armies since all problems can be worked out democratically.

The hole in this argument, as ethnic leaders point out, is that twenty years after their ceasefire agreements there have been no political discussions with the central government to address the grievances of ethnic minorities. Motions to address ethnic minority issues put forth at the National Convention, organized by the junta to rubberstamp its own constitution, were ignored and ethnic leaders threatened with arrest.

In the perceived climate of overbearing arrogance on the part of the generals, ethnic leaders say they can hardly be expected to hand over their armies to junta control and leave themselves and their people completely defenseless. Without an armed force to back them up, ethnic politicians would be powerless to confront the generals should the elections prove as much of a sham as many analysts believe them to be.

Lieutenant General Ye Myint, chief of Military Affairs Security, the regime’s intelligence agency, has made it clear to ethnic leaders in two rounds of meetings in April and June that their choice is transformation or war. Nonetheless, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), United Wa State Army (UWSA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA-ESS) have rejected the proposal, though discussions remain ongoing. Several smaller ceasefire groups which could not hope to resist an attack by the Burmese Army have agreed to become border guards.

In response to continued intransigence by the ceasefire groups, the Burmese Army has reinforced its troops opposite Kachin and Wa positions. Sources close to the ethnic insurgent groups say the junta’s reinforcements have included heavy artillery and mortars as well as perhaps two or more light infantry divisions. Insurgent groups have responded by recalling veterans, holding recruitment drives and sending units to frontline positions.