(Commentary) – Nowadays the Burmese “sanctions” question is a hot topic. I have neither opposed nor supported Western sanctions because I believe it’s not the main reason for the problems of our motherland, including the bad economy.
According to Aung San Suu Kyi, the Western targeted sanctions mainly affect the regime and its cronies and it makes the least possible effect on ordinary Burmese. They were put in place because of their [U.S., UK and their allies] principles, commitment to freedom and democracy and their willingness to support Burma's democracy groups.
Because of recent developments the sanctions will be lifted eventually whether some activists [exiled] agree or not. Even now, some constraints are already eased. Aung Sun Suu Kyi herself, welcomes foreign investment with some specific conditions such as accountability, credibility, transparency, and so forth, for the interest of Burmese commoners.
One noteworthy fact is that even if the Western countries ease or lift the sanctions, it does not mean they have complete trust of the current regime. Their hidden reason is because of geopolitics and power balancing in Asia (particularly, in South East Asia).
I, however, strongly believe that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flow to Burma will be below expectations, even though the sanctions are lifted.
What are the major reasons for the sluggish inflow of FDI? Naturally, peace and security are mandatory to attract FDI, but the required preconditions and post-conditions are a more challenging job for the current government.
There are many other important factors that must be put in place to ensure an attractive investment climate in Burma. For instance, good governance, political and economic stability, consistent macroeconomic policies (consistency and predictability are required both in political and economical polices), basic infrastructure, rules, regulations and associations (up to international standards), rule of law, guarantee of property rights, including intellectual property law, freedom of expression and press, accountability, credibility, transparency, absence of corruption and still more critical issues. That’s why sanctions alone are not the critical issue.
As I said at the beginning, I'm neutral in this matter. Let me finish with some other points: if they are lifted, Burma is likely to ease political and economical ties with China and Burma will have closer relationships with democratic nations.
In conclusion, I would like to ask all exiled Burmese activists not to express their pro-sanction views publicly. Let the NLD and the respective concerned countries decide by themselves. As I said, there will not be a significant change in Burma's economics without more changes in the regime’s policies and procedures.
When the time comes, a clear-cut picture will appear, showing who and what has been responsible for the nation's poverty.
Nyein Chan Aye is a resident of Australia. Photo: Facebook
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